This is why I rarely write about political issues. A few weeks ago, I got on my high horse and opined that we had to focus on issues and what the candidates would do when in office rather than their personalities. It was based on the assumption that we were stuck with the contenders for the Presidency that we had.
Since that ill-considered broadside, we had an assassination attempt that almost took out one aspirant, and the other quit the race. In other words, my argument that we should focus on the issues rather the people became passé almost as soon as it was published. While there are many conspiracy theories floating around both of these developments, few (OK, none) have mentioned this “coincidence”.
I should have known better. Rule number one of the Presidential race cycle is that the core narrative will change every two weeks or so. It wasn’t long ago that we were debating the impact of the Trump conviction, then it was the Biden debate debacle. From there we moved on to the assassination attempt. That didn’t last long before we faced mounting calls for Biden to drop out. Now all we can talk about is the ascension of Kamala Harris. And July just ended!!!!!
Let’s face it, in a sane world any of these developments would have been decisive. Not long ago it was unthinkable that we would elect a President that had been convicted of a crime. Nor would we consider a Presidential candidate who fumbled over his positions the way Biden did (Nixon’s 1960 debate performance had the eloquence of Obama by comparison). An assassination attempt could be counted on to generate the type of sympathy that could launch a candidate to the highest office (though it didn’t have that effect for Teddy Roosevelt, though it probably tanked Taft). The ignominious late-in-the-day departure of a candidate could be counted on to end a party’s chance to prevail.
Yet, you get the strong sense that all of these seemingly cataclysmic events are merely fodder for the chroniclers who will write up this campaign when it’s all over. Through it all, the polls have hardly changed – not that you can trust the polls. We are split and will remain split through November 5 and beyond.
Over the next 100 days there will be more of these “shocks” that the talking heads (as opposed to the writing heads, like me) will point to as game changing. There will be stupid comments, policy stumbles, scandals pulled from the distant past, and other seemingly meaningful developments. They will get us chattering as if they meant something to the final outcome, but I doubt if they will.
What will swing the election? Who comes out to vote. We know that the Trump army of devotees will show up. Will those who hate Trump and everything he stands for come out as well, as they did in 2020? That is all that matters.
Frankly, it should be simple. There are more people who oppose Trump and his policies than support him. The majority of Americans are in favor of reproductive rights, as has been demonstrated every time this issue is put on the ballot. Most recognize the risk of climate change and want to see the government address environmental issues. People want a fair system of taxation, not one that rewards the rich. We are uncomfortable about the prospect of a “moral” minority who see Trump as a way to impose their beliefs on the nation. Most of all, we just don’t like or trust him.
The problem is that many of these same people are so disgusted by the political atmosphere that they are inclined to just throw their hands up and wish a pox on both houses. They have not seen the changes they sought during either the Biden or Obama administrations and have given up hope. They are content to just let the chips fall where they may. That seems especially true of young voters.
The split in the electorate is so close that it will not take a lot of such voters sitting out the election to turn it. In fact, even if many do vote, their lack of engagement could be fatal to the Harris campaign. It is usually the young who are willing to make the phone calls, hand out leaflets and go door-to-door. More importantly, they get each other excited and interested in showing up on election day. The Democrats need that to get the turnout.
Yes, issues still matter, but for most of the electorate they are sufficiently well-defined. Even with the switch of Democratic candidates the lines are clearly drawn. We know what each aspirant will support and what they will do in office. They may say differently in the next few weeks to try and pander to the center but there are likely to be few surprises as of January 20, 2025.
All this should be kept in mind as we see the wild swings over the next few months. We have to try to avoid getting caught up in the various permutations that will inevitably occur and focus on the end game. We must convince people to vote their beliefs on November 5. If that happens, what seems cataclysmic now will just be fodder for the historian.