Goodbye 2022, Hello 2024

While I tend not to write about politics, the recent mid-term election was so fascinating, and seems to auger so many significant developments, that I cannot resist. In doing so, I am aware that I am probably saying nothing that is particularly novel or hasn’t been said by others. (My apologies if it is somewhat Pennsylvania centric).

To recap for those of you who dozed off last Tuesday afternoon, and are just waking up, pundits predicted that this year’s midterm election would result in a significant shift toward Republican officeholders, with both the Senate and House trending red, as well as state elections. Instead, the Democrats retained control of the Senate, shifting one seat in their favor, and probably holding onto all others (assuming Warnock wins the runoff in Georgia). And while the Republicans did take the majority in the House, it was by a slim margin, much less than expected. State results seem to be similar.

A shift would have been no surprise. In the 21 midterm elections held since 1934, only twice has the president’s party gained seats in both the Senate and the House. In 19 of those 21 elections, the President’s party lost seats in the House, often dramatically (for example, there was a 71-member shift against Roosevelt in 1938, and a 48-member shift against Eisenhower in 1958).

With inflation trends over the last year, and the relentless pounding by Republican candidates on crime, it was natural to assume that 2022 would conform with this trend. If ever a President’s party looked poised to lose big, this year was it. That is why the results seem to carry more import than they usually do.

So, what are the takeaways? First, election denial seems to have died on the vine. While many people still believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 Presidential election, this assertion did not sway voters. Even if some people are skeptical about 2020, they want to put that election behind them. And for many voters the boasts of candidates like Mastriano, who suggested that as Governor he would, in essence, pick the state’s Presidential winner, regardless of vote tallies, were a distinct turn-off.

An important consequence of the denial flop is that there is unlikely to be any significant changes in voting laws. After 2020 there was a lot of calls for “reforms” that would cut back on some of the electoral provisions that made voting easier, such as drop off boxes and wider access to mail-in voting. While these proposed changes were supposed to eliminate fraud, they really were designed to restrict access. With the death of the election denial issue, these changes are unlikely to occur, which means that the 2024 election will be conducted under basically the same rules that governed the 2020 election.

Conversely, access to abortion was a big issue, and will likely remain as one. Abortion rights were on the ballot in 5 states, and in each of those states the right to access was affirmed, and it generally was not close. That included Kentucky and Montana, states that are thought of as conservative, joining Kansas in rejecting bans on abortion. In other states, such as Pennsylvania, abortion rights seemed to drive more turnout than you normally see in midterms.

Republican candidates will have to come to terms with abortion, especially in swing states. A call for outright bans, such as that made by Doug Mastriano, simply will not sell. Nor will weaselly responses like that by Mehmet Oz, calling for oversight by “local politicians”. There is still strong anti-abortion sentiment out there, but politicians inclined to cater to that base will have to figure out how to tap that sentiment without provoking a significant backlash. Good luck.

Perhaps realizing the limited reach of anti-abortion rhetoric and election denial, Republicans chose to make law and order central to their election theme. This issue should have had more of an impact than it did. It has been a successful ploy in years gone by, and violent crime has risen over the last few years. Yet, while many polls confirmed that crime was a concern, it did not seem to sway many voters.

Part of the problem was the Purge-like commercials that Republicans chose to highlight crime. For many, those videos reinforced their view of the cities that they avoid, but those people were going to vote Republican anyway. For those who live or work in cities, the videos were caricatures of a much more intractable problem. It is simplistic to suggest that the increase in crime is the fault of one party, or that the other could eliminate lawlessness. Voters may have been concerned about crime but were not impressed by such hyperbole. Crime will remain a viable issue in elections to come, but more locally than nationally.

All of this confirms a trend that will undoubtedly continue, which is that the center will be hard to hold. In the final weeks of the campaign, Dr. Oz tried desperately to paint himself as a centrist, running adds that claimed he would bring balance back to Washington. The problem was that he could not run away from the perception that he was Trump’s man, and that undermined any confidence in his posture as someone who would reach across the aisle.

The primary system will continue reward the more partisan politicians. Winning a nomination for a national office will require voicing positions on key issues, like abortion, that will be difficult to backtrack on in a general election. Unless the electorate in both parties move back to the center, candidates reluctant to be strident in their stances are unlikely to prevail with their party. I just don’t see that happening soon.    

Finally, there is the elephant on the room – Donald J. Trump. Candidates backed by the ex-President and touting his favorite issue – election denial – did not fare well. I am sure he envisioned the announcement of his 2024 Presidential bid as coming on the crest of a red tide that would allow him to say, “See, I really did win in 2020”. His inability to make that claim, leaves him with little new to say.

There is no doubt that most Republican politicians would love to see him go away, but it will not be that easy. He will be difficult to beat in the primaries. Trump still has a massive and rabid following. Republicans shun him at their peril. He is egomaniacal and vindictive and will use his popularity as long and as aggressively as he can.

However, it is hard to picture Trump winning in 2024. He is a lightening rod, and if he runs, he will be the issue. The turnout against him will be huge. Other potential Republican talking points will not matter. People will vote, and vote in droves, so that he does not become President again, maybe even more so than in 2020.

That does not mean the Democrats should be complacent. The midterms cannot be seen as an endorsement of Joe Biden. People are concerned about inflation and crime. They will expect to see progress on these and other issues over the next two years, even with a Republican-majority House. Failure to move forward on their agenda could jeopardize the support of the younger voters the Democrats need.

Well, that is that, for what it is worth. Like more prognosticators, I probably am reading too much into the tea leaves. American politics will take its twists and turns, and heaven knows where we will end up. But 2024 will be on us before we know it, and one thing is for sure – it will be interesting.