Asking the Wrong Questions on July 4th

It has been some time since I wrote a blog post. Part of the reason for that is banal – other things going on. More importantly, I felt I had nothing new to say. I do not want to just regurgitate ideas. No doubt it is a form of writer’s block, similar to the yips in golf (more on that in a future post). There were thoughts yearning to get out, but the will to force them onto the page did not exist.

Despite that, I missed writing. The act of trying to formulate an idea sufficiently to give it structure is exciting. It is easy to come up with a concept, but much harder to test that concept by seeing if it can be restated coherently. I knew a time would come when I would take the proverbial pen in hand once again and attempt to summon the muses (hopefully without pretentious ornamentation).

What finally prompted me to rejoin the fray is the recent Presidential debate and all the hyperbole surrounding it. As usual, we have become focused on the wrong questions, even when, for once, the answers to the right questions are right in front of us. We go on and on about Biden’s age, and/or Trump’s criminal and civil convictions, but those are sideshows. The truth is that neither of these men should be our next President, but because of the broken system we have, they are who we’re stuck with. It’s time to move beyond these surface issues and ask what either would do with another four years in the White House.

Here is where it is interesting. For once we don’t have to guess. In every election since 1892 we have had at least one candidate who had never been President, and therefore could only rely on rhetoric to know what that candidate would do if elected. We KNOW what Biden and Trump would do with another four years because they’ve already been there, done that. Sure, there will be nuances and new problems, but the priorities of the candidates are set and have already been acted on, for better or worse. What they have done, and not done, is what we should be focused on.

Speaking of distractions, the 1892 rematch between Grover Cleveland, who was elected President in 1884, and Benjamin Harrison, who had defeated him in the election of 1988, is of some interest. According to Wikipedia, the two main issues were tariff policy and a Republican proposal for Federal regulation of elections to the House of Representatives, a program that was vilified in the Democratic south (gee, I wonder why?). Oddly, both tariffs and voting rights are back on the ballot this year, though hardly the central issues. (I note that the Wikipedia entry on the election of 1892 was voted the “pedia’s” 23^rd dullest in a recent poll). (Ok, I made that up).

Anyway, what do we KNOW about the next four years under either Biden or Trump? (I will try and be as neutral as possible when laying out positions, and apologize, somewhat, where I fail). We know because of what he did in his first term that Trump will decimate the EPA and limit environmental enforcement as much as possible. He does not believe that climate change needs to be addressed and will undermine attempts to do so. Biden will promulgate regulations that address climate change, though he will not institute more overarching measures called for by environmentalists.

In a transposed echo of 1892, Trump will continue to try to limit voting rights, endorsing measures that make voting more difficult for many. Biden will seek to expand access to the ballot, though he has had little success doing so to date in respect of a process that is largely controlled by the states. Trump will also denigrate the veracity of American elections, and use that as the reasoning behind his policies, while Biden will support the system as honest and fair.

Trump will aggressively attack illegal immigration, making it a centerpiece of his Presidency, as it was the first time around. He will use drastic means (a wall, troops) to stem crossings of our southern border, look to significantly limit even legal immigration and will target removal of those already in the country without proper documentation, regardless of how long they have been here. Biden will also adopt aggressive measures on the southern border, though without the fervor of Trump. He will also try and implement a path to citizenship for those already in the country.

Trump will renew his isolationist foreign policies, withdrawing as much as possible from commitments to longtime allies. He will sharply curtail support for Ukraine and stress the importance of good relations with Russia to the extent of non-interference with their territorial ambitions. Biden will continue to value, and strengthen, allegiances throughout the world. He will financially and materially support Ukraine in its war with Russia, and otherwise try and limit Russian expansionist tendencies.

Biden will fully support access to abortion and birth control. Trump will allow measures that would significantly curtail both. Trump will seek to reclassify Federal jobs as political so as to replace long-term employees with those beholden to him, as he moved to do at the end of his 2016 term. Biden will maintain the status quo whereby most of those employees are not subject to removal based on their political allegiances.

I could go on. As far as I can see, the only important issue where past practices cannot be fully relied on is in respect of the on-going Israeli offensive in Gaza. We know that Biden will support Israel with materials and money, while at the same time trying to limit the scope of the offensive. Trump was not faced with a crisis like this in his first term, so we cannot say for sure what he will do. However, he previously showed full support for Netanyahu, so we probably can surmise that he would continue that policy.  

At the end of the day the actions of a President are much more important than the personality of the President. We could live with a doddering Executive-in-Chief or a convicted criminal who struggles to open his mouth without lying if they would just sit in the Oval Office and do nothing for four years. But that’s not how it works. They will act, and for once we KNOW what they will do.  The question is can we live with the policies that will be implemented under their “leadership” over the next four years. The rest is meaningless diversion.