If you have not seen the recent movie “Golda”, starring Helen Mirren, now would be a good time to do so. If you have, you must be suffering from a bit of déjà vu as you contemplate the October 7 Hamas incursion into Israel. While history does not repeat itself, sometimes it sends forth echoes of the past that are hard to ignore.
“Golda” centered on the Yom Kippur war between Israel, Egypt and Syria. On October 6, 1973, Egypt and Syria launched an invasion of Israel, catching the Israeli intelligence services and military by surprise. The Israelis initially were thrown into disarray, but quickly recovered and turned the war into a triumph that led eventually to the Israel/Egypt peace accords of 1978 and 1979.
I doubt if things will go that smoothly this time around. It is going to be much more difficult to defeat an amorphous movement like Hamas than it was to counter nation states like Syria and Egypt. Despite the early success of the Arab armies in 1973, they presented a definable foe that could be outmaneuvered and overpowered. Plus, when the war turned in its favor, Israel had a counterpart in Anwar Sadat who it could negotiate with to end hostilities.
Hamas, on the other hand, has a more diffused leadership that presents no clear focus for negotiation. Plus, it does not have a conventional army that can be destroyed. Its fighters will disperse back into the general population of the Gaza Strip ready to take up arms when it is again deemed advantageous. In doing so they hold the civilian population of the Strip as a human shield decrying Israeli atrocities when Israel bombs the cities where the fighters reside, hoping to win international sympathy and support.
Plus, there are pertinent questions about the Israeli leadership. Despite the formation of a unity government, it is hard to envision Benjamin Netanyahu putting aside the reforms of the Israeli judiciary and the aggressive expanse into the West Bank that divide the Israeli people. He seems much too focused on his own political fortunes to be the type of leader that can rally the entire nation.
That being said, anyone who has paid any attention to Israel over its 75-year history is unlikely to bet against them. Israel has been confronted with existential threats since the day that it declared itself a nation. Each of those threats was countered with determination and resiliency.
Israeli response to attack has rarely been pretty. Israel has been prepared to employ seemingly ruthless methods to secure its future. While the Israeli government certainly cares what the international community thinks of its tactics, it is not going to hold back just because it may face criticism. It will do what it feels necessary and let the chips fall where they may. As much as we may think that Israel depends on outside support, especially from the United States, they are clearly willing to stand alone if need be.
There is a reason for this. Israel is in a no-win situation. Criticism of an Israeli response to Hamas started before they even had a chance to take in and evaluate the incursion. Even worse, there are voices that blame Israel for the actions of Hamas, as if Hamas would be a nice, quiet set of quiescent frat boys if Israel would just stop provoking them. This is, of course, nonsense, but it doesn’t stop this distorted narrative from being loudly promulgated.
Hamas has counted on this. They expect to be able to don the mantle of the victim despite their killing and kidnapping of Israeli citizens. They know that prominent people will support them regardless of what they do, as much from a hatred of Israel than from any love of Hamas. It is a cold, calculating, cynical strategy, and Israel recognizes it as such. They are unlikely to be swayed by those voices calling for restraint.
The sad truth is that the willingness of Hamas to sacrifice its own people may let them achieve its goals no matter what Israel does. Hamas knows that it cannot destroy Israel. However, they can increase Israeli isolation in the Middle East. Many people believe that the timing of Hamas’s actions is tied to the Abraham Accords, and a seeming stabilization of the relationship between Israel and certain Arab states, including Saudi Arabia. The inevitable Israeli response to Hamas will make it extremely difficult for these nations to maintain ties to Israel, and that is exactly what Hamas wants.
The reverberations for Israeli politics could also be significant, though how that plays out is far from certain. Netanyahu and his right-wing allies will no doubt be blamed for the failure of the intelligence community to anticipate the Hamas incursion. They will be accused, and maybe rightly so, of ignoring the threat of Hamas in their quest to populate the West Bank with as many settlements as possible.
On the other hand, there may be increased support for a more hardline approach to the Palestinian population. That is the typical reaction to attack, especially when the attack targets civilians the way this one did. Once the dust settles Netanyahu may not be in a position to demand a harsher policy in relation to Palestinians wherever they live – the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, southern Lebanon – but someone will do so, and they may well meet a receptive audience.
The future of Hamas is also very much up in the air. Israel knows who the Hamas leaders are, and they will pursue them doggedly. They will seek to break the back of Hamas and leave them rudderless so that there is no possibility of another similar attack. And, as noted above, Israel is willing to go to any extent necessary to achieve that goal.
I still firmly believe that violence breeds violence and that once that violence is unleashed it is hard to control. Just look at the war in Ukraine. The difficulty here is that chaos is exactly what Hamas wants. It might get that, but there is a very good chance that it is more chaos than it can handle.
United States President after United States President has sought peace in the Middle East. While some progress has been made in normalizing relations between Israel and certain states, that goal is no closer today than it was in 1973. There are just too many factions in that part of the world for whom peace is unthinkable, and too many others that are willing to arm them to the teeth so they can pursue their bloody agenda. We don’t know where this latest chapter in this horrific saga will lead, but we can safely guess that it won’t be the last chapter to be written.
I dunno Dad this all seems pretty apologetic to the Israeli government. I would consider the “resilience” of the Israeli state to directly correlate with its 100s of Billions of dollars in military aid from the United States over the entire history of the country. And even as they indiscriminately bomb the Gaza strip and all the hospitals, refugee camps, and churches therein, Biden still supports them monetarily. To call these actions and denying electricity, gas, and water to Gaza “seemingly ruthless methods” seems like a vast understatment. I don’t think Israel is willing to stand alone–Netanyahu knows they’ll never have to. No matter what atrocities they bring to innocent Palestinians in the name of fighting terrorism, the Western media, USA, and the EU will always give them the benefit of the doubt. Doesn’t this sound similar to Bush’s War on Terrorism? Of course the actions of Hamas are horrifying and evil, but I feel this is a false equivilance. Israel has always framed itself as a fragile island surrounded by a sea of enemies, but the power imbalance definitely lies in favor of the Israeli government. I think they’ve always come out on top because they have the unwavering support of the entire West behind them, even when dangerously close to commiting genocide on the Palestinian population.
This is clearly a topic for a longer conversation, but I seriously disagree with much of what you say. First of all, I think it is wrong to equate Israeli policies with genocide. It is a misuse of that term. Israel has sought to isolate Palestinians, especially with its expansions into the West Bank, but that is a long way from extermination, which is what’s implied by genocide. They have never taken such steps and are highly unlikely to now. Second, for much of its existence Israel WAS an island surrounded by hostile enemies that were committed to its eradication. However, they have been willing to make peace with those countries, as they have with Jordan and Egypt, though such peace only after those countries attacked Israel and were defeated. As I said in my piece, I believe that the actions of Hamas are tied directly to a fear that Israel will normalize relations with even more Arab countries. Third, Israel sought peace with the Palestinians as well. The 2000 talks led to a tentative agreement that would have led to a Palestinian state, but the Palestinians backed out. Since then things have deteriorated significantly until we are where we are today. Israelis are not choir boys, and I disagree with many of their policies, but whereas you think I have been too apologetic toward them, I think you have been too willing to overlook a long complicated history.
I’m with cal on this one. When talking about the calculated and prolonged expulsion of a people from their homes and the denial of basic necessities like water, gas and electricity I don’t think it’s a misuse of the term to say this is approaching genocide. But even if it doesn’t meet the exact criteria of a genocide yet, the comparison to the war on terror is more than apt. In a week Israel has dropped over 6000 bombs on Palestine (including areas they deemed safe zones) which is more than the US dropped on Afghanistan in a year during the war on terror. I also think it’s not fair to assign blame to Palestine for not accepting further compromises on land that had already been taken from them in 2000. I don’t know that I would say you are being apologetic for Israel here but between your language (“ Israel has been prepared to employ seemingly ruthless methods to secure its future” I’d say they are past the preparation stage of some more than ruthless methods) and the positioning of Hamas/Palestine and the state of Israel as if they are on an even somewhat equal footing in this conflict does a lot to downplay the atrocities and power of modern Israel as well as the systematic oppression of the Palestinian people. While the long complicated history is important and provides necessary insight into what is happening and how things may turn out, I think directly confronting the current and modern reality for Palestinians is more important.