By the time you read this another European war may have started. On the one hand, I cannot believe I just wrote that. On the other hand, there is an inevitability about this turn of events that is sobering. What is not, or should not, be surprising, is that this is happening in the Ukraine.
The Ukraine has long been known as the breadbasket of Europe. One estimate had the Ukraine producing up to 25% of the wheat for the Soviet Union. This has made the Ukraine a target for domination. It was an integral part of the pre-WWI Russian empire, a Soviet state between the wars, a key goal of Hitler when he invaded the USSR, one of the first countries to break from Soviet control, and, apparently, a prominent thorn in the side of the new Tsars of the Russian Federation.
This impending war is just another depressing chapter in Ukrainian history. That area has been a warzone for hundreds of years. It may well have been the bloodiest place on earth in the 20th Century, not exactly an honor you covet.
In WWI the Ukraine was central to the fighting between Russia, Germany and the Austro-Hungarian empire. Many major battles were fought on this land, with significant losses on all sides, and, of course, among the local population. It was designated a self-determining area, presumably under German hegemony, under the 1918 treaty of Brest-Litovsk, which ended the war between the German Empire and the newly formed Bolshevik government but that didn’t last long.
After the defeat of Germany, the incorporation of the Ukraine into the USSR was not a given. Soviet jurisdiction was violently contested by many Ukrainians and Poles. The Soviets eventually controlled the area, incorporating the Ukraine into the USSR, though the resistance was never forgotten.
The period between the wars brought a different kind of nightmare. Stalin, intent to collectivize the farms of the USSR, imposed mass starvation and dislocation on the Ukraine in and around 1932. It is estimated that 3.9 million people died in what the Ukraine people call the Holodomor. In addition, hundreds of thousands were forcibly removed from the area and sent to other parts of the USSR.
WWII was a hell on many fronts. The German invasion of the USSR went right through the Ukraine. Many Ukrainians, presumably out of hatred for the Soviets, sided with the Nazis. Others fought for the USSR and undertook guerilla warfare. Many fighters and civilians died as part of, or in response to, guerilla activity. More died when the Soviets drove the Nazi’s back through the Ukraine. After the USSR reestablished control, some of the guerilla units switched to fighting the Soviets, and were, again, ruthlessly suppressed.
Even more horrific, the Ukraine was a major killing field in the Holocaust. It is estimated that as many as 1.6 million Jews were murdered in the Ukraine during WWII. Many of the worst Nazi death camps were on Ukrainian soil. Some Ukrainians were willing participants in this slaughter, acting as concentration camp guards, joining police units and providing other support.
Now this blood-soaked ground is being threatened again. It is hard to attribute any cause to this war other than pure, unadulterated avarice. The Ukraine poses no military threat to Russia. There is no credible scenario where it becomes a staging ground for a western invasion. Ukrainians are Slavic, like Russians, so there is no is no ethnic predicate, flimsy as that would be. This is nothing but a naked, “I want it, so I am going to take it”, land grab.
It is extremely disheartening that we are seeing this kind of raw bellicosity as we approach the 70th anniversary of the end of WWII. Putin is even borrowing from the Hitler playbook, blaming others for goading him into war. His justifications are just as pathetic. It is hard to believe that he can voice them with a straight face, though that seems to be a skill most dictators possess.
It is unclear what Putin plans to do with the Ukraine once he conquers it. Does he really think that this country can be folded back into the Russian Federation? Is he already designing a massive crackdown that will eliminate potential dissidents? Is he yearning for his old KGB days, and thinking that he will reimpose Soviet style controls?
Three things are for sure. First, whatever Putin is thinking, it will not go as planned. There will be resistance he did not anticipate. There will be destruction he hopes to avoid. There will be consequences that he cannot account for.
Secondly, no matter how the initial surge proceeds, violence will breed violence. It may take the form of guerilla warfare. It may be terrorism aimed at military and non-military targets. It may be initially confined to the Ukraine, but it will spill over into other parts of Russia and the surrounding countries. It’s like a half-inflated balloon. Push on it in one spot, and it will bulge out in another.
Finally, we will all be forced witnesses to this horror. Maybe the US can impose sanctions, but we cannot stop the bloodshed, just like we could not stop it in Syria or Afghanistan. We will be confronted with our impotence to effectively respond to this kind of abomination, and with the seeming never ending ability of mankind to inflict savagery. It is so dispiriting and yet so predictable.
*First line of Ukranian National Anthem, according to Lyricsondemand
Great write up Tom. Two additional observations. First, Ukraine was the home to Joy and part of my families in the 19th century and the scene of many horrible pogroms when the Czar was cracking down on jews. Second, I’m very skeptical about what Putin may do here – I think he likes the attention, likes to sow chaos, and is seeking to leverage perceived weakness in the western alliance and in the US to see how much he can get away with. I’m still wondering if there is really any benefit to him invading – I think the threat of invasion and all of the chaos it’s causing is his main tactic and his real strategic goal is to keep himself in power by distracting his people with this stuff and also promoting Russia’s international profile as a relevant power. we shall see
I thought about including more about the bloody Ukraine pre-WWI, but it was a bit too much. The Ukrainian people, like the rest of the Soviet Union, have never really faced up to their participation in the Holocaust. Plus, it also should not be forgotten that may Jews were killed and displaced in the Holodomor as well.
As for Putin, I agree with you that he’s hard to read. I don’t see what he thinks he gets from an invasion, and maybe you’re right that it is all just to gain leverage. If so, it is an incredibly cynical game he’s playing.
Hi Tom. Great piece. Agree with Jon on this. It feels the Soviet People are aware their ‘representative government’s’ story of defending their nation from aggression from the West. I doubt any of them truly feel that there is really a threat. Putin needs to show his man-chest to his oligarchy. I hope that is far as it will go. But if it does go forward I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Ukrainian Jet fly right into the kremlin – 9/11 style. Oh wait! I forgot 9/11 was a false flag.
As hard as it is to read Putin, it’s even harder to read the Russian people. Are they buying the propaganda they’re being fed? Do they support this aggression, or are they just indifferent, or as impotent as we are to stop it? I must admit, I don’t have a clue.