Reading the Tea Leaves

Our emergence into 2022 struck me more than most flipping’s of the calendar. Maybe it’s all of those 2’s. Maybe it’s that we are almost quarter of the way through the 21st Century. It probably has a lot to do with the sci-fi novels and movies that I’ve consumed over the years, many of which prognosticated a much different world by the time we got this far. Whatever the reason, it is taking me some time to absorb where we are on the cosmic timeline.  

Many of the predications, both fictional and otherwise, posited that technology would significantly change the way we live. The Lords of Technology promised that their innovations would do more than enhance our lives, they would transform them. The sense was that would have happened by 2022. Much of the futurist fiction agreed with that premise, but assumed that the transformation would be catastrophic, not beneficial.    

The innovations have been significant. The personal computer, the internet, e-mail, the cell phone, social media. All have altered how we operate on a day-to-day basis (and all were 20th Century inventions). But I am not sure that they have changed how we view the world, or how we relate to each other. They may have brought certain traits to the fore, like social media’s platform for tribalism, but those traits have always been there. 

A good argument can be made that the real shift was with the industrial revolution, which started in the mid-1700’s, and that the societal changes since then have flowed from there. It was with the industrial revolution, and the enlightenment which promoted it, that science, for better or worse, became central to our world view, replacing a predominantly theistic outlook. That trend may have accelerated through the 20th and 21st Centuries, but there has been no significant break in perspective. 

Humans are basically conservative. Not politically, but personally. Most of us take comfort in continuity. We may adapt to technical change, but we still want it to fit within the framework of the familiar. We generally bend the technology to the lifestyle we know, using it as an augmentation rather than a disrupter.  

It will take something more radical than electronic gadgets, no matter how sophisticated, to break us out of the habits and mindsets that currently predominate. Climate change has that potential. If trends play out as some scientists predict, parts of the globe could become uninhabitable, and scarcity more prevalent. That could well result in deep seeded alterations in how we connect to the earth and each other.  

The current chip shortages prefigure another possible radical shift. Perhaps at this juncture our world is not as threatened by new technology as it is by a loss of the technology we have come to depend on. So much of what we use in daily life requires those chips to operate. A more permanent disruption of that supply chain would entail a step backwards, which would be much more difficult than steps forward.  

Of course, none of that will happen in 2022, if it ever does (the climate change scenario is obviously much more likely). Even if any of these catastrophes do occur, they will play out in ways that we cannot imagine. They will demand flexibility and innovations that are beyond my ability to conjure. 

It is that personal inability to envision the future that will keep me going back to dystopias. The ability of books like Blindness by Jose Saramago or The Children of Men by PD James to awaken a future when humans are forced to rethink life’s basic assumptions are fascinating. The power of movies like Mad Max: Fury Road, Blade Runner 2049, or even Wall-E in creating a broken-down world is striking.      

That is the fun of dystopias. They let you explore worst case scenarios without actually experiencing them. At the same time, they reinforce that the future is not set in stone, and that we need to carefully consider the impact of what we are doing today on future generations. Not a bad message to receive. 

I would be remiss if I did not give a shoutout to depictions of the future that are not so grim. The various Star Trek series are at the top of that list, providing a possible societal evolution that is positive. I think that goes a long way towards accounting for its continuing popularity. As gripping as the dystopias can be, it is heartening to imagine a world where we are not careening through deserts in search of remnants of water and food, while fighting off drug addled automatons. 

2022 will undoubtedly be a year with surprises. They all are. But it is unlikely to be a watershed that will change the basic structure of our society. We will continue to muddle along as we have with incremental steps to who knows where. In the meantime, the futurists will continue to give us plenty to think about, and look forward to, or not.           

2 Replies to “Reading the Tea Leaves”

  1. So I would say two fundamental changes wrought by technology is the instantaneity of information (both real and false). It’s very difficult to simply disappear and work expects constant and immediate attention – this is particularly true for our children’s generstion and beyond. It has led to radical changes in the way people relate to each other and makes it much harder for people to deliberate and have patience. That’s one major way technology has changed both time and how we relate to one another

    1. There is a lot to what you say. The insistent nature of technology has changed our priorities, and how we deal with each other, though I am not sure that it has changed how we view ourselves and the world. In saying that I know that I am speaking as a representative of my generation. It is not second nature to me, as it is to our kids, and even more to those even younger. I am not sure where that leads. We will see.

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