Since I saw fit to comment on the 2020 Presidential election with a 5:00 a.m. semi-depressed rant I thought that I should probably follow it up with something more measured now that the counting is all but done. Obviously, I am ecstatic about the outcome, but what happened isn’t really weighing on my mind. The more interesting questions are what this election foretells for the future, not that I have a lot of answers.
It is hard to see this election as anything other than a referendum on Donald Trump. What is not clear is the extent to which it was a referendum on him personally or on his policies, though both naturally come into play. Ultimately, did the coalitions that formed reflect a belief that we have to implement/repudiate action on issues such as climate change, student debt, tax structure, pandemic relief? Or did the coalitions form to either embrace or reject Donald Trump and his style of leadership?
The upcoming Georgia runoff elections for Senator should tell us something about these coalitions. Will the 2.455M Georgia voters who supported Trump in the general election come out in similar numbers in an election where he is not on the ballot and is unlikely to significantly engage? Conversely, will the 2.465M Georgia voters who supported Biden come out in similar numbers in an election where Trump is not on the ballot to vote against? Plus, how many of those voters who could not stomach four more years of a Trump Presidency will be equally wary of a congress fully controlled by the Democrats? How many of those voters really wanted to see a significant change in policies, or were they just interested in getting rid of Trump?
And what now for Donald Trump himself? I watched a post-election webinar sponsored by Authors against Trump because it included two novelists I greatly respect, Paul Auster and Salman Rushdie. They, along with the other panelists, said they thought that Donald Trump would now go quietly in the night. I wonder whether they had been paying attention to the last four years and had digested the election results.
Donald Trump garnished over 70,000,000 votes in this election, more than any other candidate in the US history (except for Joe Biden of course). If this was a referendum on Donald Trump half of the country answered with a resounding YES!!! Whether we like it or not, Donald Trump remains the most popular person in the country. Is there anyone else other than rock stars that can pack arena after arena the way he does? I certainly doubt if Joe Biden could.
Knowing Trump’s love of the spotlight, and how much he feeds off of these crowds, do you really think that he will give that up? (Honestly, do you think any of us could?) We know that he will never admit that he lost this election, that much is already clear. We also know that many of his followers believe that as well, regardless of whether there is any proof of fraud. Donald Trump will eventually have to abandon the White House, but it will be kicking and screaming.
I think that what we are likely to see from Trump is a never-ending, unrelenting Twitter stream castigating Joe Biden, being received by millions of receptive fans. Barring debilitating medical or legal issues (both of which are very possible considering his lifestyle and the way he conducts his business dealings) I can very easily see him coming back for round two in four years. He knows the support will be there. There are clearly no Republicans that could challenge him. If he does run again, will the voters come out again in droves once more to reject him? Because you know his supporters will be there for him.
Actually, I think that Joe Biden is coming in at a good time to withstand any challenge four years from now. We are at an ebb, much as we were in 2008 when Barak Obama became President. Four years from now the pandemic should be behind us. The long-term economic outlook is actually pretty good, especially if Biden provides short term stimulus for those hit hardest by the virus and invests in infrastructure projects that put people back to work. That being said, all Presidents are subject to attack because of where they sit, and many of his supporters, especially young progressive voters, will be looking for more than a return to stability to enthusiastically support him again in four years (assuming that he is in shape to run again – a whole different topic).
Well, again, I really hadn’t planned to delve into politics in this Blog, but there are some things I can’t resist. I feel like all of the networks that have had 24/7 election coverage for the last week. “Now back to our regularly scheduled program”.