Now What?

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is over a year old. The last few months have seen heavy fighting in the Ukrainian southeast provinces that Russia has claimed for its own. Russia launched a major offensive in this area that has, by all accounts, gone nowhere. The Ukraine is poised to launch a counter-offensive designed to regain sovereignty of the territories that Russia now controls.

In the meantime, Russian assaults on Ukrainian infrastructure have continued. In particular, Russia has targeted facilities generating power. Presumably these attacks were to inflict maximum discomfort on the Ukrainian people over the winter months. As with the Russian offensive, these assaults seem to have little impact on the Ukrainian will to resist, though it would be wrong to fully discount the damage and hardship engendered.

While Ukraine is publicly optimistic about its military position, it is hard to envision their counter-offensive driving Russian troops out of the disputed areas. As weakened as the Russian military may be, Putin will certainly use all of his resources to avoid withdrawal. He has too much personally at stake to allow that to happen.

There have also been some attacks within Russia, though they have been few and far between. Responsibility for these attacks have been disputed, though what is clear is that the Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity to bring the war to Russia. (Side note – It is almost laughable to see the indignation of Russia whenever these attacks occur. As if they cannot fathom why someone would want to harm “Little Ol’ Me”).

There was some thought that international pressure would force Russia to backdown. There always has been little chance of that as long as Putin is in power, but any spark of hope died when China declared its “neutrality”. China, supposedly, will not provide weapons to either Russia or the Ukraine, but neither will they condemn the Russian invasion. Even if it is true that they will not sell weapons to Russia (which I doubt) it would take a fully united international response to get Russia to even consider a change in position, and China has made that impossible.            

There have also been calls for negotiations, but it is hard to see a basis for compromise. The Ukraine certainly would want Russia to withdraw from all disputed territories, and, as noted above, Putin will not let that happen. Nor is the Ukraine going to be inclined to cede those provinces to Russia, especially when Russia has been unable to establish a firm foothold there through military means. A plebiscite of the inhabitants’ desires is theoretically possible, but it is hard to see how agreement could be reached on the details of such a vote. Bleeeding Kansas is a more likely precedent than Schleswig.

What is inevitable is that the end of this war will be messy. They always are. As much as historians like to focus on how wars start, how they end often has longer lasting consequences. The classic case is the Treaty of Versailles, a victor’s peace that imposed conditions on Germany that made WWII if not inevitable, much more probable. The end of WWII saw the rise of the “iron curtain” which killed democratic movements in eastern Europe, and led to a cold war that instigated an arms race we are still in the midst of today.

Recent United States experience proves the same. The first Iraqi war was relatively easy from a purely military perspective. It was not hard to drive Hussein out of Kuwait. However, the battles bled into sanctions which only increased the Iraqi government’s repression of dissident sects (the Shias and the Kurds). Eventually this provided an excuse for the second Iraqi war, in which militarily objectives were quickly attained. But the subsequent Sunni insurrections and the rise of ISIS resulted in significantly greater losses than the war itself.

The chaos surrounding the withdrawal of Russia and the United States from their respective wars in Afghanistan also highlight wars ending badly. Both countries hoped to install a government favorable to their interests. Both failed miserably. The result is a despotic regime impervious to international influence, devoted to taking the country back to the Islamic Middle Ages. There is no end in sight to the suffering of the Afghan people (especially women).

Which brings us back to the Ukraine. What now? We can hope for a miracle like the removal of Putin, or Ukrainian exhaustion leading to the cession of territory, but, contrary to popular opinion, miracles are very rare in times of war. We can also conjure up scenarios where either Russia or the Ukraine score decisive military victories which decide the issue. However, there is no evidence such a breakthrough is on the horizon.

What is probable is a stalemate for the foreseeable future. The Ukrainian counter-offensive may dent Russian positions, but it’s hard to envision them fully driving Russia back across the border. After the failure of the winter offensive, I don’t foresee Russia launching another for some time. They are more likely to dig into defensive positions and continue to declare their shaky hold on the disputed territory a victory.

To the extent there is a solidification of positions, less conventional warfare is sure to follow. Ukraine will want to try and bring the war to Russia proper but can only do so through covert action. Russia will continue to bomb and is likely to get less discriminant in its targets. Any way you look at it, more death and destruction will follow.

The international community will also be dragged further into this, but not as peacemakers. As the Russian bombing continues, Ukraine will call for more and more sophisticated weapons. They are likely to get them. That may spark China to drop its “neutrality” and supply Russia with whatever it needs to continue its aggression. Not a pretty picture.

I wish I could engender some optimism about this situation, but I can’t. This is just another predictably bloody wormhole arising out of an idiotic, meaningless war. We never learn. I am afraid that we never will.